Will the Bellyflop Be an Event at the Beijing Olympics?

Posted on August 17, 2007
Filed Under Beijing Olympics, Mobile |

For being the largest mobile market in the world, China does lack in one area: 3G. According to People’s Daily China first began developing its own version of 3G (TD-SCDMA) back in 1998, with the China Academy of Telecommunications Technology and Seimens cooperating on its development. All this could have been just another story of just another government promoting just another domestic firm in just another strategic space.

That all changed in 2001 when Beijing was chosen to be the site of the 2008 Olympics. For some reason, China promised that the Olympics would embrace 3G technology. People watching events on their mobile phones, getting real-time results, etc., etc. I assume that this was important to the International Olympic Committee (IOC), but I can’t imagine why. There doesn’t seem to be anything on the IOC’s site about gee-whiz technology. But a commitment was made, and China aims to stick to it.

It’s widely assumed that the government wants to ensure that TD-SCDMA is ready and deployed before opening up the market to other technologies. The other two leading 3G technologies, WCDMA and CDMA2000, are not exactly taking the world by storm but they are up and running. In China the licenses haven’t even been issued yet. It’s become something of an annual ritual where everyone expects the licenses to be issued in Q-whatever of next year and it doesn’t happen.

TD-SCDMA did pass a preliminary test (with Wen Jiabao answering the phone) in 2004 and now has gone on for trials in cities across China. They are:

Pop quiz! Name the seven Chinese cities that will host events for the 2008 Olympics:

China Mobile, using TD-SCDMA, will provide 3G services for the Beijing Olympics in 2008. You can almost bet the farm on it. But will it succeed?

Does TD-SCDMA really work?
Although the trials are going ahead, there have been questions in the past about how well TD-SCDMA works. This article from the Register in 2004 quotes China Daily describing a “lack of workable handsets, dubious stability and poor reliability of TD-SCMA’s core network”.

That was almost three years ago and with ongoing trials across China I assume that most of the bugs have been worked out. However, there has yet to be a truly large-scale deployment of TD-SCDMA. Could it handle hundreds of thousands of users (millions of users?) watching events, getting scores, sending and receiving pictures, sending and receiving SMS messages, not to mention talking?

This looks to be the biggest concern: what if you build it, they come, and it doesn’t work right?

What about 3G mobile phones?
No supply problem here. Most, if not all, the major manufacturers have some kind of TD-SCDMA handset. This also may provide an opportunity for Chinese handset manufacturers to increase their share of the market. Currently domestic handset manufacturers (led by Lenovo) have less than 25% of China’s mobile phone market.

Getting people to buy 3G mobile phones may be another problem. I couldn’t find any reasonable estimates of what a 3G mobile phone would cost. It’s difficult to judge what the price would be for wide adoption, but for it to be cheap would mean big productions runs for the chips.

Maybe China Mobile will subsidize them as a promotion - watch your mailboxes.

Is there going to be anything interesting?
Will the content be compelling enough? Will people have to pay for it? Will millions tune in for the handball quarter finals? The idea of video over mobile phones (as distinct from mobile TV) is something that has been pushed around the world, but with mixed success. I really don’t know if people will be excited enough about the Olympics to watch events on their phone.

Let’s just hope that CCTV isn’t responsible for the mobile content.

Is anyone going to actually use it?
It won’t be international participants and spectators. Unless they have a multi-band mobile phone with TD-SCDMA (doubtful), are given one (probable for some participants, extremely unlikely for spectators), or buy one (I suppose there will be some oddballs in attendance), only people living in the Olympic cities will be able to use it.

I suppose it’s there that the bellyflop will happen. There isn’t much point in showcasing China’s technical prowess to the world if only a few of the attendees from around the world get a chance to experience it.

I’m happy that Beijing is hosting the 2008 games, and I think they will be a success. But let’s just hope that there will be more compelling stories from the Olympics than mobile phones.

Comments

2 Responses to “Will the Bellyflop Be an Event at the Beijing Olympics?”

Catching Mice in China - Technology and business in and around China » Just How Many Mobile Phone Users Are There in China? on October 4th, 2007 5:27 pm

[...] to 3G, the bellyflop watch continues with this small reference in the United States Information Technology Office’s [...]
China Mobile’s Feet Begin to Feel Warm | Catching Mice in China on June 30th, 2008 12:10 pm

[...] done. With the Olympics less than six weeks away, MII wants to ensure there won’t be a mobile bellyflop. China Mobile intends to donate 100,000 TD-SCDMA terminals complete with UIM cards, RMB 180 in [...]

Leave a Reply